tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post340747681531576218..comments2024-03-29T12:03:50.891+05:30Comments on The Leap Blog: Crisis watch, 31 OctoberAjay Shahhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03835842741008200034noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-81507423061432741002008-11-04T13:06:00.000+05:302008-11-04T13:06:00.000+05:30There is always some investment strategy that prod...There is always some investment strategy that produces spectacular returns in any environment. The trick is not to suggest which funds test well under the current stress, but to have foreseen it and piled in before the stress occurred.<BR/><BR/>Someone always has a story about what a fortune they are making, the only difference is there are fewer people making those fortunes this year than there were last. Its harder.<BR/><BR/>You look at Deutsche, they actually called the end of the US property bubble, and their CDS desks and MBS desks took speculative positions on indexes to reflect that belief, they didn't just hedge like Goldman did, they bet on it. The guys on those desks and the analyst that made the call took home obscene amounts of money during bonus time last year.<BR/><BR/>Its seeing the future that makes the moolah, basing an investment strategy around black swans seems prescient now, but honestly, I prefer taking a punt on market direction myself.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-286490341514551002008-11-04T06:25:00.000+05:302008-11-04T06:25:00.000+05:30Based on this article, RBI is paying around Rs.169...Based on this article, RBI is paying around Rs.169 for every dollar. Can any one guess how long RBI is capable of doing this kind of buy ?<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/06/16/stories/2008061651000100.htm" REL="nofollow"> The Article in Hindu Business Line </A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-80675300638295458512008-11-03T22:29:00.000+05:302008-11-03T22:29:00.000+05:30http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122567265138591705...http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122567265138591705.html<BR/> <BR/>The Black Swan fund generated 65% return last month and YTD is up more than 100%, the strategy is simple, earthquakes in the markets happen every 4/5 years unlike those predicted by statistics. So you invest the money in treasury bills and buy deep out of the money puts on indexes and wait for the earthquake to happen, the strategy will deliver sub-optimal returns(treasury yield -cost of puts -fees) for several years but when the earthquake happens the returns will be spectacular.Yogeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18347434997728247568noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-50903888720198365992008-11-01T22:05:00.000+05:302008-11-01T22:05:00.000+05:30Oh! I did not know that. Thank you very much. Yes,...Oh! I did not know that. Thank you very much. Yes, that puts a very different perspective on this.Ajay Shahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03835842741008200034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-83012849913676501802008-11-01T21:57:00.000+05:302008-11-01T21:57:00.000+05:30Ajay, while your general point about Unitech is we...Ajay, while your general point about Unitech is well-taken, the Telenor deal will not help Unitech itself. <BR/>This deal is <A HREF="http://www.bseindia.com/qresann/news.asp?newsid=%7B26A6CEDD-203B-4BCF-9557-514593EE9451%7D¶m1=1" REL="nofollow">not a stake sale but fresh equity into Unitech Wireless</A>. As such, it doesn't bring in any fresh cash into Unitech itself. Of course, from now on, Unitech does get a partner who will share the burden of carrying the telecom millstone around its neck till they finally give up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com