tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post2801184885861897786..comments2024-03-27T17:16:12.789+05:30Comments on The Leap Blog: Envisioning future scenarios for India and ChinaAjay Shahhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03835842741008200034noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-76271551720669738782011-07-15T19:21:25.910+05:302011-07-15T19:21:25.910+05:30With each new bombing, the chances of Mumbai becom...With each new bombing, the chances of Mumbai becoming a major financial centre are receding.<br /><br />The same goes for the economic growth of the country.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-86566276391485600592011-07-05T10:58:37.767+05:302011-07-05T10:58:37.767+05:30What has "liberal democracy" done for th...What has "liberal democracy" done for the poor in India? It is not even liberal and elections don't mean democracy when nearly 50% of the population are pretty much illiterate and another 40% don't share the values on which western-style democracy is built on. I know that I don't fully share them either. What we have a foreign system implanted in our country. In contrast, China has an indigenous system, which has been given the veneer of a western ideology.<br /><br />Somebody up there ranted about how boring development is. I think this is a problem with most middle class Indians. My hopes are pinned on the vast poor masses who are finally realizing what is possible. This might have been hastened through land reforms and other sorts of political empowerment rather than simply inheriting the British system.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-13836958828531200922011-07-04T09:13:38.241+05:302011-07-04T09:13:38.241+05:30Though it is always a good idea to guard our freed...Though it is always a good idea to guard our freedoms more jealously (even in God's own USA), I am less worried than most people about the prospect of India degenerating into an illiberal polity. As Amartya Sen and also Guha have beautifully pointed out, India has a long and deep rooted tradition of public debate and tolerance of heterodoxy. Such tradition can rest easily only within a liberal and decentralized political setup, and the Indian democracy owes its staying power much to this tradition. <br /><br />Given in addition India's large diaspora and the tendency of the upwardly mobile Indians to identify with the Anglo-Americans rather than their peers in other parts of the world, I am much more optimistic about the future of liberal democracy in India.Nimish Adhiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03182995246631771197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-6942684139978721342011-06-30T00:57:50.160+05:302011-06-30T00:57:50.160+05:30The fact that the commodity indices have been corr...The fact that the commodity indices have been correlated with chinese/indian stock markets is a red flag to me. In fact I would allege that if you were to broaden your definition of inflation to include commodity/asset inflation there is hardly any growth! Sure, commodity inflation is volatile, etc so looking at just the peaks is not meaningful but nevertheless its a huge negative. The barabaric relic, Gold being the best asset class in the last decade is not a good indicator of the quality of growth in the last decade. When the Gold rally is all done (as it will be one day), it will be interesting to see where the BRICs are at that point (in other words it will be interesting to see when and how commodity indices un-correlate with the emerging stock markets). <br /><br />Secondly, I do not like an economy (both China/India) where the govt can come out and indicate what the growth will be for the next year (the govt ideally should have no clue). Neither do I like GDP growth fetish (and it is currently equivalent to a +ve asset inflation fetish) while ignoring things like HDI, policy environment, degree of crony capitalism, etc, etc. The quality of everything (from food to housing to roads to healthcare to education to legal systems) is just ridiculously low. <br /><br />And, then there was Krugman's paper in the 90s about what went wrong with Russian and the Asian tigers - the first phase of growth is easy because of mobilization of capital. The next round based on productivity is far, far tougher. India probably has a lot more capital it can mobilize before it runs into that, but this type of growth is hardly exciting for a middle class educated Indian. It has a lot of meaning to those in poverty, sure. But, urban India has been pathetic in the last decade and regresses because it can't keep up with the influx from rural India and as a result we have urban slums and pressures on urban systems. <br /><br />Labor arbitrage while great and essential isn't really as amazing as the computer age driven by decades of research in the West. With some exaggeration, it almost seems parasitic that emerging countries feed off of decades of computing and network research in the West to now bring down global wages. Sure, trade benefits both sides, etc, etc (I get that) but that holds only as long as both sides are true to the principles and culture of free trade, meritocracy and reciprocation. And, where there is some balance between the two sides. Where the gaps are huge, one side assumes almost a parasitic role until it develops which for India will take decades - sure, our kids will probably have a better India but in my lifetime India is going to struggle with things that the West struggled with 50 years ago and the Chinese struggled with 10-20 years ago. Hardly exciting having to fix basic problems at our scale. Its equivalent to replaying past scenes from other countries here. Boring...<br /><br />And, then there is Africa which will give competition at the lower end of the pyramid to start with. And, our businessmen will aid that, lets see how that works out. <br /><br />Anyway, end of rant.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-48871921409924339902011-06-29T04:24:00.002+05:302011-06-29T04:24:00.002+05:30I just wanted to add. About Argentina, I described...I just wanted to add. About Argentina, I described your take as putting the cart before the horse because Peronism etc were effects of poor policies lacking in sustainability that were pursued during the boom years. Also, the US redistributed land to all comers while Argentina maintained the hegemony of large landlords (and I think they still do).<br /><br />It is a good argument for land reform, something that was pursued by Japan, South Korea and Taiwan at various times.<br /><br />We haven't had land reforms in India.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-581247433876247862011-06-29T04:08:55.446+05:302011-06-29T04:08:55.446+05:30Germany is still doing well and in case of Argenti...Germany is still doing well and in case of Argentina, you put the cart before the horse. In both cases, there is a common thread - the accumulation or lack thereof of knowledge and skills.<br /><br />Argentina made a fundamental mistake in not allowing most of its immigrants to settle down. So guest workers from Italy would work in the farms and then return rather than settle down, invest and build new businesses/lives/professions. Argentina is closer to today's Australia than to any other country.<br /><br />Germany (and Japan) have been repeatedly able to return from disaster. This is because they have built up a huge skill base in complex engineering, logistics etc. It is very difficult to replicate this in a generation or even two.<br /><br />As a victim of British colonialism, we should be the last to consider Imperial Britain a liberal democracy. It was a colonial power that sucked out resources from other countries. Hardly anything liberal or democratic about it.<br /><br />What I worry about in case of India is that we are not building up sufficient amounts of complex skills. IT is the only sector where we have built world class capability. In everything else, we are mediocre. China on the other hand is slowly building up skills in manufacturing, logistics and what not. These skills will outlast any institution.<br /><br />At 75% literacy, we may be able to grow in a generation but we are at least one generation behind China.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-1672006629652960302011-06-28T08:22:46.311+05:302011-06-28T08:22:46.311+05:30That India needs to strengthen existing institutio...That India needs to strengthen existing institutions and develop new ones needs iteration repeatedly, because most decision makers still have the mythological proclivity of a heroic figure rescuing the lesser mortals. The recent surge of hope about Anna Hazare's initiative rests on that assumption. On the other hand, the major beneficiaries of peace and stability in the country do not show enough willingness to stimulate the independent thinking process. Any such attempt has to come from the civil society itself, but can be catalysed by the private sector through setting up think tanks on different focused themes and letting them shape the discourse. One does not see any such awareness among the captains of the industry.Nandkumar Saravadehttp://www.saravade.com/blog/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-76248578777964023982011-06-27T16:28:46.439+05:302011-06-27T16:28:46.439+05:30Ajay - excellent analysis and I echo your views th...Ajay - excellent analysis and I echo your views that India cannot remain complacent. The policy makers must step up to the next level of development, particularly to transparency and accountability.Bala thakrarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-74387228371179551762011-06-27T16:10:57.498+05:302011-06-27T16:10:57.498+05:30Brilliant analysis!Brilliant analysis!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-1829680324324207362011-06-27T13:18:11.188+05:302011-06-27T13:18:11.188+05:30Dear Ajay,
This short history of the world could ...Dear Ajay,<br /><br />This short history of the world could not be better timed and accurately analayzes the state of the Indian state currently. Most Indians are smug in the belief that India is "bound" to grow at 8%+ in the many years ahead without realizing the various factors that make this growth possible. Complacency is the worst mistake anyone can commit, History is the best teacher, only if we pay enough attention to it.<br /><br />with regards,<br /><br />AdityaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-24267858337057921332011-06-27T12:22:38.845+05:302011-06-27T12:22:38.845+05:30Good thoughts. I would like to point out only two ...Good thoughts. I would like to point out only two things... what happened after emergency and how people are reacting now regarding corruption(read Anna Hajare & Baba Ramdeo). We have tendency to course-correct ...witness the history of last 5000+ years.Ajeynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-47058310262514987092011-06-27T01:15:10.839+05:302011-06-27T01:15:10.839+05:30awesome article
- manojawesome article<br />- manojAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-10980370902142724462011-06-26T20:30:19.123+05:302011-06-26T20:30:19.123+05:30Dear Ajay,
The Economist has come out with a spec...Dear Ajay,<br /><br />The Economist has come out with a special report in this week's(June 25th) issue.<br /><br />With regards<br />NarasimhanNarasimhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08372439515317405426noreply@blogger.com