Saturday, August 08, 2009

Good news on exports that you did not know

See Ila Patnaik and Giovanni Veronese in Financial Express (on the 6th).

1. One important outlier that is missed in Export figures is impact of Oil sector.Last year, Crude Oil prices were near $140 per Barrel and now they are about half of that.The corresponding Petroleum product prices would be proportionate to the crude prices.Considering, the huge weight that Petroleum products carry in the import/export basket and the wild swings that petroleum experiences, the analyses of export figures should discount this. 2. While imports constitute an important proportion of total imports, the same is not true about exports. Petroleum and crude exports constitute 9-10% of total exports. Moreover the petroleum product prices may not fall in tandem with international crude oil prices due to administered price regime. 3. I am not sure who the "you" is in this article. I would submit that most financially literate people are aware of the so called "greenshoots". From my perspective, it would have been news if Indian exports were not responding. The big question that investors are struggling with is whether this summer surge is sustainable. Any views on that front will be much appreciated. The following is a good read: http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publications/PDFs/19185.pdf 4. takethetimes@gmail.com Please note: Comments are moderated. Only civilised conversation is permitted on this blog. Criticising me is perfectly okay; uncivilised language is not. I delete any comment which is spam, has personal attacks against anyone, or uses foul language. I delete any comment which does not contribute to the intellectual discussion about the blog article in question. Please note: LaTeX mathematics works. This means that if you want to say$10 you have to say \\$10.