## Saturday, August 30, 2008

### Global Turbulence: Its Unfolding Trajectory and the Likely Implications for India

A lecture by Percy S. Mistry at ASCI, Hyderabad, on 26 August 2008.

## Introduction

Since mid-2007, the global economy has been unravelling in disconcerting fashion. That has taken governments and aam aadmi' by surprise in most countries. The nature and speed of this unravelling' has been discomfiting. It affects everyone: i.e. individuals, poor, middle-income, or rich, multinational and domestic firms, academics, governments or regulators.

Global turbulence is certainly affecting India. We can see that in sudden changes in our inflation rate, growth rate, exchange rate, and in our capital markets. We can see it in the stresses and strains it is putting on fiscal, monetary and social policy. But, by and large, the impact of global ructions has so far been less on India than on other energy importing countries. The continental dimensions of the Indian domestic market are now generating a powerful internal growth dynamic with rising domestic incomes. That provides India with some shelter from this global storm.