I've long been worried about how the US economy will shape up, and about the consequences of a downturn in the US for India. But writing in Business Standard today, I disagree with some of the more extreme doomsday scenarios about the US. We're all well schooled on emerging markets crises, and I think we're inappropriately extrapolating too much to the US. I think there's a good chance that the US will hit 0% GDP growth for a few quarters. But I don't see things getting much worse than that.
Update (19th morning). I wrote this article at 2 PM yesterday (18th, Tuesday). This morning, when I woke up, I saw the S&P 500 was up 4.24% and VIX is down sharply from 32% to 26%. These are massive moves. The standard deviation of a one-day change of the S&P 500 over the last 1000 days was 0.81%, so this is a 5.3 standard deviation move.