Ajay you claim that a 10% appreciation could lead to a 2% fall in inflation. That estimate seems to be on the higher side. Empirical studies (even by RBI) that I have seen suggest a 1% change in inflation for 10% change in currency. Can you elaborate upon your assertion? Thanks.
blogger misses 2 points..good deal of reserves are not really reserves and is susceptible to flight as FIIs fleea sharp rise in rupee will not only devastate the only industry (IT,BPO) that has been the bellweather for indian growth for the last 5 yrs..ANyhoo, the time has arrived where last 5 yrs of credit (hence debt) orgy & loose monetary policy worldwide is beginning to bite everywhere..I will predict Rupee to fall to ~60 against dollar in ~2 yrs..Rampant indian inflation will reduce indian growth to ~4% in the next decade
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