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Wednesday, February 21, 2007
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96 comments:
Perhaps you could post your thoughts on what the upcoming budget will look like, or comment on it after its released.
Excellent blog by the way, I always look forward to new posts. I wonder what percentage of your readers are within India vs. outside
regards,
Patel
Excellent Blog, Ajay !
Perhaps you could post about your views on career for Indian finance professionals in the fields of Financial Engineering / Risk Management / Derivatives
It fluctuates by time of day. In Indian time there are more Indian readers. As of 10 PM on Sunday (25 February) the distribution of "recent" users is: India (53%), US (14%), Australia (6%), UK (5%), Hong Kong (4%), etc.
But these numbers reflect visitors to the blog on the web only. A lot of dissemination is happening in ways that I can't count. I put the full text of the blog entry into the RSS feed, which is getting pushed out into various RSS feedreaders, RSS->email, republication of the RSS feed by other services, etc. I believe most of my readers never show up at this web page. So one really doesn't quite know where it's going.
I believe that roughly two-thirds of the readership is in India.
Excellent, incisive blog. Always top class analysis on financial markets. You provide a high level view. I think You are the right person to give a road map for Indian finance professionals in the areas of financial engineering,Quantitative finance. I think most of the finance courses in MBA are bland lacking in sophistication, rigor and intellectual depth. Any universities offering computational finance or financial engineering. You remind me of NN Taleb of fooled by randomness.
Hi Ajay - Came across your blog while browsing some comments on FRBMA. Excellent work and really good analysis. I work as Economist for BMR & Associate. In fact it is a coincidence of sorts that yesterday only my senior Mukesh Butani and I were appreciating your recent article in BS.
Best regards
Tanmoy Chakrabarti
Do let us have your thoughts on outcome budget. De-finance the contribution, if you like. Lets see Ajay Shah contribute to the welfare administration.
Salutations Doc !
Why does SEBI have to respond to market volatilities in a "knee jerk reaction" fashion? It has become a rule rather than an exception. The recent instances where the regulator is contemplating checks on IPO listing day prices is a case in point. Why does the tampering (with play of market forces) have to to take place at all?
Are we missing something here? What do you make out of this signals?
Thanks
R. Shankar
Good work!
Hi Mr Ajay Shah,
I am a researcher and nowadays dealing with Indian economy. I need some basic information about the monetary policy of RBI. I have looked at it s web page several times but could not find general statement of MP. I mean main frame or model.is it using inflation targeting or something else and besides what is the exchage rate policy what are the operational tools and so on.
thanking you in advance.
Excellent Blog, Ajay !
Perhaps you could post about your views on career for External Commercial borrowings.
I appreciate your blog indeed!
Mr Ajay Shah I was lucky to be your class where in you had delieved a lecture in Goa on while I was doing my post graduation, thought it was just one hour it was really fascinating to be in that part ...
then after 4 years i am in touch through urs blog its nice please enlight all the reader on net with your power of thoughts looking forwards
Your article in BS on RBI was interesting. According to Dr. Reddy, the six most important challenges warranting priority attention are:
• stepping up agricultural growth,
• infrastructure development,
• fiscal consolidation,
• building social infrastructure
• managing globalisation and
• good governance.
The conduct of monetary policy should continue to provide support to these areas by creating an appropriate atmosphere of macro-economic stability, especially price and financial stability .
India’s conduct of monetary policy is well described by Dr. Rakesh Mohan:
“On the whole, the Indian experience highlights the need for emerging market economies to allow greater flexibility in exchange rates but the authorities can also benefit from the capacity to intervene in foreign exchange markets in view of the volatility observed in international capital flows. Therefore, there is a need to maintain an adequate level of foreign exchange reserves and this in turn both enables and constrains the conduct of monetary policy. A key lesson is that flexibility and pragmatism are required in the management of the exchange rate and monetary policy in developing countries rather than adherence to strict theoretical rules.”
He talks about flexibility and pragmatism…I hope someone in MOF and RBI reads your article!
CNBC does a good job of bringing experts views to junta at large (like me) but most of the times the experts do a poor job of explaining the world around and taking a clear stand. More annoyingly, a huge recency effect reflects in their analysis.
In that background, your comments on credit policy today were refreshingly insightful. I wish more experts could be like you.
Looking you up landed me at your blog which I realize, is a great source of learning on key economic and financial issues in our country.
Hats off !!
- A fellow BITSian (only a decade younger)
I really like your blog and always look forward to a new post every day. I am one of your non-India users who uses RSS feed to read the blog and actually hardly visit your page!
I really like your latest post 'Don't sweat the quant stuff'. Keep it coming!!!
Am based in HK and would like to send you some questions for a magazine feature on the Indian economy - what is your mail id?
SA
The tragedy of cotton farmers committing suicide in Maharashtra and not Gujarat is discussed very well. There are lessons to be learnt for the public policy in the country. Circulated the article to the candidates going for the IAS interview.
Thanks a lot Mr.Ajay Shah.
God Bless You
srirangam sriram
It takes me hours to figure out what you write. Why don't you put less strain on your brain and write simpler English, atleast you can try to.
Oh well, I can too try to improve my vocabulary.
Perhaps, we can try both.
Higher education means higher brain torture and the torture never stops, though I still love the torture and many people round the globe too, just like you seem to enjoy.
I am a regular reader of your excellent blog! It has kept me follow the trends in money, banking,economics and public policy and overall economy...
Keep the thread going...
regards,
naraynan sethurao
It should be a free world. Both ICFAI and International CFA should be allowed to run. However, ICFAI should keep separate names for its courses. It even uses terms like M.S. in Finance which is a straight copy of U.S. financial degree. Indians always are copy cats.
I am doing ACCA. Even ACCA is not recognised by ICAI. Why ICAI is afraid to compete against globally recognised CA courses?
B.E. college students themselves are protesting against having 2-3 dream jobs. "So-called weak" students are afraid to compete against meritorious students.
Many Indian citizens are not hard-working enough like in Japan. Instead engage in activities like leg-pulling, and being copy-cats. They lack creativity, and the urge to do things differently.
Hence, Indians are always 50 years behind the world.
Moreover, UK also has a protectionist policy of taking resident workers first and then migrants. I faced this problem while applying for ACCA internship in UK.
The world is still bounded by barriers. The iron wall is still up. Even "so-called developed" countries are not brave enough to take the challenge from countries like India, China head-on.
Rgds,
J.B.
Dear Ajay
I want to know what are the parameters for the stock exchanges putting a stock on trade for trade. It is very frustrating for an investor like me to buy into a stock based on technical signals only to see it being transferred to trade for trade in an entirely arbitrary manner. I had written to the exchanges also but have not received any reply as yet. Since you are so well versed in these matters I was hoping you could shed light on this matter
Ashok Thakwani
Kolkata
one word for ur blog - AWSOME ! keep it up !
reg
ketan
Your blogs are excellent.
I look forward to reading each one of them as soon as they get published .in fact I read old ones again to enjoy .
Regards,
Rahul Banerjee
Great work sir...
Indeed the best blog & collection, i have ever seen on such a interesting topic...Keep it up
HI Ajay, I am jinesh, I accidentally drop in to your blog and I found it very much informative and interesting. The way you have presented the topics is simply fantastic. I am especially interested in the Forex market and I got so many article on currency market. I am interested in making my career in to the currency market. Thanks for creating such a useful blog. I also wanted to ask form where I can get the book tittled "Around the World on a Trillion Dollars a Day" by Gregory J. Millman.
Regards
Jinesh
Hi Ajay.....
I was surfing google and finally landed into your blog..
its nice and lot of information...
Hi Ajay,
My name is Pierre Fitter and I write for Businessworld magazine. I would like to speak with you about an article I am writing. Please let me know how I can contact you at pierre(dot)bw(at)gmail(dot)com
Thanks a lot,
pierre
Dear Ajay
great blog...rich reportorie of finance subjects. i am more interested in insurance and pensions...
one query which i wanted to post is,
1) Do u think pension companies have to consider mortality rate? it assumes more significance cuz of higher life expectancy rates now a days. As per my knowledge in 'annuity for life' cases, companies dont take into account life expecatncy of the customer and the annuity rate thus turns out to be unjustified and perhaps inadequate...can i have more light on this issue?
just for the intro, i am pursuing MBA prog from IMT Ghaziabad. I worked for 5 yrs in pvt life insurance sector.
Regards and thanks
Diju Jose
Ajay,
I have been trying to find some information to compare the NRI exchange rates that banks provide and also trying to compare the various services they provide to their customers. I have not been able to find that much information online about the public banks, as much as the private ones. Most people are saying ICICI is the best, just because they provide online accessibility to customer's accounts. I would like to know what the highlights of SBI or other such public banks are when it comes to NRI accounts. I am particularly interested in comparing banks like SBI, IOB, IB to ICICI, HDFC, CITI etc. Any information about that you might be able to share, would be great!
hello dr shah,
can we have your thoughts on the sub prime woes in the US market and its contagious effects in Europe now . Alos is it the testing time for CDO markets ?
HI ajay, You seem to be very knowledgeable on Indian Markets. I need some clarity. Is it possible to get in touch with you other than by way of this blog? will be more obliged than you can imagine. Please CONTACT ME AT asma_kapoor@hotmail.com.
Dear AJAY
I must say your blog is just the best. The areas being covered and the the way they have been classified is absolutely great.
Thanks
I came across your name referencing an article you had written about the Farmer Suicides in a blog called India Indeed. So checked your blog out, great stuff! You obviously know what you are talking about!
Amit
excellent article on the SWF funds...i am looking forward for your other posts.
As a student from IGIDR, I feel great to have taught by Dr Ajay Shah. I was never a voracious reader about financial markets but your blog has made easy to understand and very interesting at the same time.
Very interesting and brain storming reading indeed!
Ekta Selarka
Dr.Shah,
I saw this article on today's NYT
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/17/business/media/17bubble.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ei=5088&en=162ea9d8b534b419&ex=1350360000&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
I couldn't agree more with the other. But can you throw us some light on the science and speculation in valuations of firms. Can this valuations be more standardized and regulated so that the econimic bubbles can be minimized if not prevented.
I came across your blogs today and found them most intersting and informative.Your profile, an excellent rarely found.
In your today's blog on 'rupee policy' you mentioned about MSS Issuance by RBI, may I request you to kindly explain what is MSS Issuance?
regards
Girish Shah
8-11-2007
Superb analysis!..i am also a regular reader of your column, and its always informative.
Heres my blog
http://thebullishbear.blogspot.com/
stop by and take a look..
anyfeedback/comments would be great.
I have been reading your blog for abt a month. Its been amazing how much i have learnt thru your blog...Keep posting the way you do, i have only one suggestion, plz expand the variety of your posts (finance is huge!)...but truly yours is the best blog I have ever come acros coz its simple, relevant & current...Thx a ton
Superb Blog!!
If you remember i met you on the flight to Delhi from Mumbai.You suggested me to read your blog and then i was completely clueless.
Since then i have been reading your blog and it gives great insight into the finance stream to enhance my knowledge of a MBA.
Keep up the good work
Thanks
Archit Singhal
Hey Ajay,
I've read your blogs and various articles on NPS..those are really quite informative. There are some serious concerns about the unorganised sector bill, I feel you can throw much light on. Right now I just need to know can anybody become a CRA and operate on its own for the micro segment of the society without any govt approvals?
HELLO SIR
I m new to blogs reading but i m happy bcz in starting i got a good views on appreciation of indian rupee in ur blog.
thanks sir such a nice information for all.
may i ask a favour plz
can u plz describe more if u have no problem bcz i need much more information on it.i got but need more
topic is APPRECIATION OF INDIAN RUPEE & ITS IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY
Sir plz if u send me this onmy mailid its a good for me
actually i m preparing on this topic as a presentation for my interview but nt much know how to start
plz help me sir
Congrats! Yours is one of the best blogs on Indian capital markets I have come across. I am a fan of NIFTY BEES myself.
I liked your article on high fund management costs in India. During my recent visit to a well known Shahrukh-Khan-endorsed bank, they tried to hard sell a ludicrous insurance and MF combo (called ULIP or smth)...the exhorbitant fees made me wonder if the AMCs are getting away with murder in India? I work in a bank myself so have nothing against cross-selling but they should respect the fact that clients do have some IQ.
Hello Ajay,
I just want to know whether Online Forex Trading is legal in india??
Please do reply.
Not exactly blog-related, but I'm teaching myself maximum likelihood estimation in R, and I found your page on MLE estimation of OLS models to be incredibly helpful in figuring out how to get started. Thank you for posting it on the web!
Dear Sir,
Of late we have started getting some info on sub-prime exposure of Indian banks but what about our insurers; though they dont have much foreign investments, they reinsure a lot and with the rating downgrades thats happening with reinsurers, aren't there some effect on our insurnce companies too? Should IRDA get active on this issue ?
Best regards,
Anonymous1.
Please listen to some very interesting comments from the CFO of India's one of the most professionally run, private sector companies :
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/business/lt-suffers-rs-150-200-cr-hedging-lossesfy08/13/43/329660
Dr. Shah, would be really thankful if you can comment..
Best Regards,
Anonymous1
I just read your article "A crisis? Or a mere recession?". I'm sorry to say that the analysis is simplistic and inexplicably optimistic, and your reverence toward the Fed is pathetic.
In case you haven't noticed, the Fed is panicking. It cut interest rates by 75 points in January, then by 50 about a week later, then by 75 in March. How often does that happen? Doesn't that tell you something?
Since interest rate cuts are not working, the Fed is turning to programs not used since the Great Depression, and it's creating new ones as well (TAF and TSLF). What does that tell you?
Do you remember in 2007 when Bernanke said that subprime was "contained"? I wouldn't trust the "brilliant intellectuals" at the Fed to do my laundry.
Also, do you really think holders of foreign dollars are going to continue the "good deal" that makes them absorb losses from steep falls in the dollar? What do you think will happen when they cut their losses and start selling those trillions of dollars?
I find it incredible that you have a Ph.D. in economics and that you advise people on the subject.
Gurudev,
I am intrigued by this piece on The Black Swan : http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aHfkhe8.C._8&refer=home
Would you care for a review?
Best regards,
Anonymous1
raise your voice against the unfortunate shiv sena rage against the north indians in maharastra
http://aamchination.blogspot.com/
thanks,
Hello sir,
I read your blog on interest rate futures and i am currently pursuing my summer project on the evaluation of the product (interest rate futures).
there are few questions i my mind regarding the overall product design and the related issues.
i wanted to discuss the same.
the very first thing is that it is very much true that something very useful for a particular person may not be the same for the other. this goes with firms also and also with products.
it is also true that interest rate futures are a big hit in US market as a true hedger but it might not be the same in India. so why are we putting so much of efforts on this issue rather we should be going on to improve the interest rate swaps in India which are already the best hedgers today. we should be improving upon this to make them the true hedgers.
what you have to comment....
Hello Sir,
I regularly read through your blog( at least skim through it) but most times can't make out much of the financial terms.I'm an engineering under grad but would like to understand the mechanics of our financial systems.Can you suggest some good books which can help me in making sense out of your blog posts.
Thanking You,
Ankit
This blog is definately a bookmark :)
Hi Ajay, your blog is a must read for me from time to time - though I also generally catch up on your columns on BizStd.
Newsweek's recent issue talks of $200/barrel oil. Goldman Sachs has made that prediction. There are blogs out there like seekingalpha etc where some folks have written about a future price of crude oil @ $300/barrel.
I am in disbelief over whats going on in the Crude oil market. This reeks of a global contagion. Sure the Oil rich countries will be richer but something seems to be wildly amiss.
I am scared that the way things stand if $150/barrel oil does come to pass, and the oil bonds issue becomes a Fiscal deficit issue (I havent read about your opinion on the FRBM yet I wanted to write this note first - FRBM Act, I am sure was stillborn anyway). If the new Fin.Min next year has to balance the economy, he will have no choice to keep raising Petrol/Diesel and Gas prices till there is some ongoing balance. This will probably have a highly inflationary impact most definitely. I see that last 5 years of economic growth being reversed in the next 3 years. It may be far-fetched but a recession most likely anyway.
What are your views on this and the big question - Are these oil prices really in a bubble, or we should be living scared about our way of life?? I mean should the mantra be Conserve, walk, cycle, use public transportation and say good buy to my Honda car.
regards
Pravin
Hi Ajay, what are your views on the illiquidity that persists in Stock Options in India. The traded volume & OI have been continuously dwindling. Can a change in the strike parameters make a change or would physical delivery be an important element ?
It appears that due to the fear of post market exercise, even for a few ruppes profits by option buyers, the sellers are not coming forward. Would love to hear your views.
Arvind Goyal
Would like to know your views on High crude ; curtailed Dollar movement in indian market by RBI and simultaneous effect in eroding of our Dollar deposit surplus...Will the shift parameter in Globe related with crude and rise of nations with alternate energy search rule the game in future.Doesn't it gives us impetus to strengthen our public transport system and giving tax sops for Hybrid buses for conveyance of staff, or may be going harsh way to remove depriciation on LCVs to corporates.Should govt try to curtail Govt Expenditureand Divest in some of the PSU's to move surplus money to required infrastucture processs and give boost to Exports sector. Also should we not create a draft white paper on How in Next 10 years we as Indian will rule some of the industry as source to World. - Abhinand
Dear Sir,
After going through your web site, I thought you might be interested in using BullionVault's referral scheme.
BullionVault is an online gold market which allows private individuals to buy gold, own, and sell gold at current gold prices. Gold trading - from one gram up.
Please feel free to contact us should you have any query.
Regards,
Nittin Seehakoo
Dear Ajay Shah,
I am an avid reader of all your writings. I would like to draw attention to the below writings of Prof Nouriel Roubini whch was posted on RGE Monitor of July 15, 2008. Each of his indepth analysis over the last many months merits a lot of thought and reflection. I felt that it would be useful to all if you could give your comments / discuss some of the issues in your blog.
Thanks and Regards
Shashi
In a series of recent writings on the RGE Monitor Nouriel Roubini has argued that the U.S. is experiencing its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and will undergo its worst recession in the last few decades. His analysis leads to the following conclusions:
*This is by far the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression
*Hundreds of small banks with massive exposure to real estate (the average small bank has 67% of its assets in real estate) will go bust
*Dozens of large regional/national banks (a’ la IndyMac) are also bankrupt given their extreme exposure to real estate and will also go bust
*Some major money center banks are also semi-insolvent and while they are deemed too big to fail their rescue with FDIC money will be extremely costly.
*In a few years time there will be no major independent broker dealers as their business model (securitization, slice & dice and transfer of toxic credit risk and piling fees upon fees rather than earning income from holding credit risk) is bust and the risk of a bank-like run on their very short term liquid liabilities is a fundamental flaw in their structure (i.e. the four remaining U.S. big brokers dealers will either go bust or will have to be merged with traditional commercial banks). Firms that borrow liquid and short, highly leverage themselves and lend in longer term and illiquid ways (i.e. most of the shadow banking system) cannot survive without formal deposit insurance and formal permanent lender of last resort support from the central bank.
*The FDIC that has already depleted 10% of its funds in the rescue of IndyMac alone will run out of funds and will have to be recapitalized by Congress as its insurance premia were woefully insufficient to cover the hole from the biggest banking crisis since the Great Depression
*Fannie and Freddie are insolvent and the Treasury bailout plan (the mother of all moral hazard bailout) is socialism for the rich, the well connected and Wall Street; it is the continuation of a corrupt system where profits are privatized and losses are socialized. Instead of wiping out shareholders of the two GSEs, replacing corrupt and incompetent managers and forcing a haircut on the claims of the creditors/bondholders such a plan bails out shareholders, managers and creditors at a massive cost to U.S. taxpayers.
*This financial crisis will imply credit losses of at least $1 trillion and more likely $2 trillion.
*This is not just a subprime mortgage crisis; this is the crisis of an entire subprime financial system: losses are spreading from subprime to near prime and prime mortgages; to commercial real estate; to unsecured consumer credit (credit cards, student loans, auto loans); to leveraged loans that financed reckless debt-laden LBOs; to muni bonds that will go bust as hundred of municipalities will go bust; to industrial and commercial loans; to corporate bonds whose default rate will jump from close to 0% to over 10%; to CDSs where $62 trillion of nominal protection sits on top an outstanding stock of only $6 trillion of bonds and where counterparty risk – and the collapse of many counterparties – will lead to a systemic collapse of this market.
*This will be the most severe U.S. recession in decades with the U.S. consumer being on the ropes and faltering big time as soon as the temporary effect of the tax rebates will fade out by mid-summer (July). This U.S. consumer is shopped out, saving less, debt burdened and being hammered by falling home prices, falling equity prices, falling jobs and incomes, rising inflation and rising oil and energy prices. This will be a long, ugly and nasty U-shaped recession lasting 12 to 18 months, not the mild 6 month V-shaped recession that the delusional consensus expects.
*Equity prices in the US and abroad will go much deeper in bear territory. In a typical US recession equity prices fall by an average of 28% relative to the peak. But this is not a typical US recession; it is rather a severe one associated with a severe financial crisis. Thus, equity prices will fall by about 40% relative to their peak. So, we are only barely mid-way in the meltdown of stock markets.
*The rest of the world will not decouple from the US recession and from the US financial meltdown; it will re-couple big time. Already 12 major economies are on the way to a recessionary hard landing; while the rest of the world will experience a severe growth slowdown only one step removed from a global recession. Given this sharp global economic slowdown oil, energy and commodity prices will fall 20 to 30% from their recent bubbly peaks.
*The current U.S recession and sharp global economic slowdown is combining the worst of the oil shocks of the 1970s with the worst of the asset/credit bust shocks (and ensuing credit crunch and investment busts) of 1990-91 and 2001: like in 1973 and 1979 we are facing a stagflationary shock to oil, energy and other commodity prices that by itself may tip many oil importing countries into a sharp slowdown or an outright recession. Also, like 1990-91 and 2001 we are now facing another asset bubble and credit bubble gone bust big time: the housing and overall household credit boom of the last seven years has now gone bust in the same way as the 1980s housing bubble and 1990s tech bubble went bust in 1990 and in 2000 triggering recessions. And a similar housing/asset/credit bubble is going bust in other countries – U.K., Spain, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, etc. – leading to a risk of a hard landing in these economies.
*But over time inflation will be the last problem that the Fed will have to face as a severe US recession and global slowdown will lead to a sharp reduction in inflationary pressures in the U.S.: slack in goods markets with demand falling below supply will reduce pricing power of firms; slack in labor markets with unemployment rising will reduce wage pressures and labor costs pressures; a fall in commodity prices of the order of 20-30% will further reduce inflationary pressure. The Fed will have to cut the Fed Funds rate much more – as severe downside risks to growth and to financial stability will dominate any short-term upward inflationary pressures. Leaving aside the risk of a collapse of the US dollar given this easier monetary policy the Fed Funds rate may end up being closer to 0% than 1% by the end of this financial disaster and severe recession cycle.
*The Bretton Woods 2 regime of fixed exchange rates to the US dollar and/or heavily managed exchange will unravel – as the first Bretton Woods regimes did in the early 1970s – as US twin deficits, recession, financial crisis and rising commodity and goods inflation in emerging market economies will destroy the basis for it existence.
*Thus, the scenario of 12 steps to a financial disaster that I outlined in my February 2008 paper is unfolding as predicted. If anything financial conditions are now much worse than they were at the previous peak of this financial crisis, i.e. in mid-march of 2008.
Kindly inform us of the seminars and workshops you are conducting / taking part in…..I remember one by you long time back at Taj Palace, New Delhi. It was a CMIE users meet.
It will be nice of you if could inform us when you will be taking a work shop…...or conducting a seminar.
Your effort to educate us through the blog is much appreciated.
In deep admiration
Anand Kamal
Mobile: 98100-18830 (New Delhi)
Dude, your articles are careful and thoughtful. But there is an underlying assumption that people are sweet and want change for a beautiful future! That is wrong with reference in India. There is an established mafiosi controlling politics in any guise and form, an absence of law, an absence of an honest police force and a preponderance of deceitful rougues in business. Top that off with the average citizen's proclivity to lie and cheat. Maybe when you come down from la la land you will plot that into your equations. (one of these days you should get off the financial high horse and travel through India and get a rude dose of the future)
A breakthrough for solar/fuel cell technology
In a little noticed development, a major breakthrough appears to have been made that will enable significantly more rapid conversion to solar energy as the primary global energy source. The major stumbling block for solar power has always been the lack of a simple and cheap way of storing the energy for when the sun is not shining. In the July 31 issue of the journal 'Science', two MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) researchers have developed a simple catalytic process that separates hydrogen and oxygen out of water, for later use in powering fuel cells, a proven form of energy storage. The key is that the process of separating the hydrogen and oxygen uses little energy, occurs at room temperature and uses cheap and abundant chemicals as the catalysts. In other words, it's simple and cheap. Significantly, they have patented their technology, but made it 'open source' to allow other researchers around the world to build on the discovery.
This story has not been picked up in the mainstream media yet, but I think there is potential for this to become a major story in the weeks and months ahead. The obvious implications for oil are massively negative, but in the short-run oil will still be needed. However, the longer-term implications are truly epochal. Might we be on the brink of an energy solution that is cheap, efficient and non-polluting? Stay tuned on this one.
Ajay, it was nice to attend your Currency Futures presentation at Delhi today. The last time I heard you was in 1995 when you came to delhi while NSE was being formed. It is always a pleasure to hear you talk.
regards,
Alok Jain
Rohini Capital Services Limited
Ajay, on the context of whether resident indians can trade marginable products, i looked up the RBI site and found point 13.3 pertinent in the folliwng link : http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Mode=0&Id=3637#a13
Would appreciate your views. I think it clearly prohibits trading in futures. my email is niftytrader@yahoo.com. thanks
Alok Jain
I scanned your labels for the word "poverty" and could not find. You seem to a more of a financial economist but still your views on the topic of poverty will be (I guess) worth looking for.
Poverty is one thing that surprises me so much because, we just haven't been able to tame it(Despite the efforts & resources diverted to it). Some day we will have a pop-in cure for cancer, I am not sure about the same for Poverty. I would like your views on that topic.
Secondly, One suggestion here, you can add the "search blog" feature offered by blogger to your blog, it will make easier for people searching specific information.
Great Blog!
Cheers!
Mr. Ajay,
Considering your pro-activeness in posting comments on financial matters, I am surprised at your silence on the current trumoil in the global markets.
Any views (review?) on your suggestions on functioning of Central Banks (made in the recent past) especially in the light of the current siutation/actions??
Regards,
S
Ajay,
It is a pleasure to read your analysis on Financial markets.
We are also trying to do some nice work in this field. (http://www.bizglu.com). Also we have some unique approach to handle the complexities of the current financial turmoil. (http://ansgroup.co.in).
We are trying to come up with aa approach where we are trying to perform pattern mining so that we can catch and identify a pattern and try to see from historical analysis how to handle.
Although we have the technology ready and are ready to deploy in the current markets, I would like to know your perspective, that if we do have a great decision support system in place, how best can it weather the storms which the whole world is witnessing now.
Vivek
vilamba@yahoo.com
Hi Ajay, excellent blog covering a wide range of subjects.
We're currently running a blogger contest on our website, thought I'd drop a comment to see if you're interested in joining in with a post related to personal finance or investing.
cheers.
Hi Ajay,
I run a blog for mba aspirants at blog.mbakarma.com and we have used one of your papers in our post.
I could not find any other places where I could ask you for permission.
Here is the link to our article.
http://blog.mbakarma.com/ajay-shah-global-crisis-effect-india
Regards,
Sudhanshu
1. Why do so many male economists have a beard ?
2. Why do most Indian female economists dress so simply and boringly ?
Is it not "cheap signaling"..why define ones profession by the attire..
Hi Ajay, I received the following in one of the innumerable forwards.
http://amazingsandy.blogspot.com/2008/11/fw-important-aspect-in-current-economic.html
Although it is quite funny, on a serious note is it worth having a discussion on whether preferring 'swadesi' products over the 'foreign' ones would really impact the economy of India. For e.g. What about all those indians working for these MNCs.
Excellet blog...
Could you help me in getting the book on Indian Financial Services penned by you?...
For the book, see here. Or just ask google.
The financial crisis has seen varied responses from the RBI and the govt- using monetary policy and fiscal policy as tools. Could you throw some light on when would a monetary policy response be more effective than a fiscal policy response and when would the converse be true? Also, what would the govt need to do when both of them fail? If you were the finance minister, how would you respond to the financial crisis(having the benefit of hindsight)- in terms of stimulus packages..etc...?
Now with every economist and analyst worth his hat forecasting a 4% Indian GDP growth for FY10, I am waiting for a 2% GDP forecast..It seems the trend is 'Smaller the sexier' . Just like fashion, this seems like a race toward size zero..Although economists were never known for their affinity for high fashion
excelent effort...
thankyou for being a bloger...
In English class, one girl Cheap WoW Gold said never give up when discussing. It just reminded me wow goldsomething about myself.WoW Gold Maybe it is wow power leveling something about love.WoW Gold My love, which began on July 3rd of WoW Gold 2005 and finished on August wow leveling 23rd of 2008, taught me many things. wow leveling It is not a pleasant world of warcraft power leveling thing to look back on world of warcraft power leveling that. But I know I world of warcraft power leveling must learn something from it,world of warcraft leveling no matter what it is, world of warcraft leveling happiness or sorrow.Our wow gold love did not go on so smoothly and we went through many things.
Least said the better!
It is always nice to come across something informative.....as it helps expand one's horizon and thought process... thanks for that..
Alok
http://myheartfeltmusings.blogspot.com/
Least said the better as words are not enough to describe your blog........very informative
Ajay :
Excellent Blog ! Kudos.
Can you write/publish something on-How can an Indian Institution/FII borrow money (finance) either onshore (INR) or offshore (USD)against Pledged Indian equities.
Think summarizing the existing conditions and some recommendations will be of hugh interest to your readers.
Thanks.
Dear Sir,
I would like to know why the RBI uses WPI for its policy purposes instead of CPI to measure inflation ?
It seems almost all countries use CPI and not WPI.
The WPI is declining while Consumers feel the reverse when they go to market.
Is the difference in frequency (CPI- Monthly while WPI- weekly) only reason ?
Surely, the RBI also knows this.
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Is a "One World Government" feasible? Is increasing consumer spending a sustainable model? I think it makes Nature suffer more. Why not have taxes only on expenditure instead of income? Why cannot we look to nature, and consume just necessities? Why is prosperity measured in monetary terms, rather than in happiness levels? Why is the cost to Nature not monetised and added to the P/L statements of highly polluting organisations?
Hello Sir,
I had created a debate "Revised balance sheet of Satyam"(description:Can there be any reason of Satyam for not revealing their revised balance sheet before the bidding?")
I found ur site in"http://www.indianeye.org/top-indian-blogs/"
I found ur intrested in Politics.
So i request yo give ur valuable suggestion here(in the link) so that we can know better about this case. looking froward from u.
Sorry sir I forgot to give the link
it is
http://toostep.com/debate/revised-balancesheet-of-satyam
Hello Sir,
Your blog is quite informative. Thanks for providing many valuable information through it.
Well, I have a question regarding FRM certification and higher education in finance. I am dual degree(B.Tech. & M.Tech.) from IIT Madras in CSE and working in IT for one year. So, I have no finance experience but I am interested in Finance, specially risk management.
I have briefly gone through FRM material and found it interesting. I am sure of doing this certification. Now I want to know if this is sufficient to get into finance industry or do I need to have another degree,say MS or MBA(which one is better?).
It will be great if you can give your advice on this.
Thanks,
Archana
Wonderful blog sir, its my pleasure reading it.
In this entire global financial fiasco between foreclosures, bankruptcies and credit crunch at every corner of the street, where did all the money go?
Regards,
BJP.
Have been a fan for long. Whenever sanity deserts me, I turn to your blog.
Best wishes.
Bala
Found out about your blog at http://inforum.in/blog/2009/05/12/15-must-read-indian-blogs-about-investing-business and it is really good. I also have a financial blog at http://desimoney.blogspot.com do you mind doing a link exchange?
really good job.
best regards from germany.
jakub
Dear Ajay
I came across your blog yesterday, and found it quite insightful. I was wondering if you could perhaps write something about www.naukriforwomen.com in your blog. My company has recently launched this website. For the business community, our website shall prove to be a big saver on manpower costs. I request you to please consider this, since so many people follow your blog.
Thanks,
Shalini.
please give your views on sesa goa corporate governance
Financial statement of sesa goa for 2008 - 09 (AGM HELD ON 13TH AUGUST)disclosed under loans and advances 1000 crores of IDC which advanced to vedanta aluminum( promoters group company) which is almost 25 percent of the book value of the company . In annual report no details are available about this IDC, such as term, rate of interest, security etc nor auditors have reported anything about IDC. I think auditors were suppose to report on this matter as per CARO because promoters are holding more than 51 stake in this company and IDC is given to promoter own company (a related party transaction)
Is this not bad corporate governance?
sanjay dessai
Your blog is like being in touch with an intellectual all the time....every time i turn up to it i came out learning something..thanks sir.
Hi Ajay,
I would like to take privilege to invite you to my group of NRIs on LinkedIn. Please tell me your email ID.
This group is to build collective strength of Non residents Indians to participate in social, political and economic activities to contribute in peace and prosperity of India and the world.
This groups gives members the opportunity:
- to work on collective investment options in India.
- to work on business projects and ideas with collective strengths
- to work for development of India as political and social forum
- to work for world peace and environment protection
Here is the link to the group
http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=2050711
Regards,
Mahesh Chandra
RESPECTED SIR,
very happy to be a visitor of your blog.
keep this good work going.
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